The 2011/12 year-on-year trend is an increase of at least 20%. However, this drops to 12.4% in January 2012/13, one assumes because of the price increase, though other factors such as the weather can play a significant part. Extrapolating the figures, it can crudely be estimated that January 2013 was about 40,000 rides below what might have been expected.
| Month | Previous year | Latest | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2011/12 | 694,396 | 833,721 | 20.1 |
| Nov 2011/12 | 588,811 | 706,388 | 20.0 |
| Dec 2011/12 | 403,335 | 497,716 | 23.4 |
| Jan 2012/13 | 487,615 | 547,838 | 12.4 |
Total distance has risen substantially due to the overall rise in number of journeys (see previous tab) and the increased average ride distance (consistently up each month by 6-7% over the previous year, something that does not seem to have been impacted by the January price change). The rise is less though in January 2013 as the number of journeys only increased by 12.4% against a trend of over 20%. But factors such as weather might also play a significant part in this.
| Month | Previous year | Latest | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2011/12 | 1,029,385 | 1,293,168 | 25.6 |
| Nov 2011/12 | 872,764 | 1,092,622 | 25.2 |
| Dec 2011/12 | 584,260 | 751,140 | 28.6 |
| Jan 2012/13 | 718,565 | 845,593 | 17.7 |
| Month | Previous year | Latest | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2011/12 | 1.48 | 1.55 | 6.9 |
| Nov 2011/12 | 1.48 | 1.55 | 6.5 |
| Dec 2011/12 | 1.45 | 1.51 | 6.1 |
| Jan 2012/13 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 7.0 |
These figures set out to explore if the January price change has had a different impact on usage during the week or at weekends.
There's a very odd pattern here that I can't really explain! Tuesday - Thursday are significantly up, Friday - Monday are around static. Given that the overall trend is significantly up year-on-year (by around 20% or more), this actually represents a fall in relative terms. In fact the January increase came out at 12.4% (see first tab) so it appears that what we are seeing is that Tues-Thurs have actually held up post January's price rise, but the overall average has been pulled down by Fri-Mon figures. I think though it probably boils down to exactly when the days fell and whether people had returned to work after the holidays. Other factors such as the weather can also have a marked impact and if you look at the historic data you can see that January is a relatively quiet month anyway. Probably best not to read too much into these and wait and see what happens in February.
| Day | Jan 2012 | Jan 2013 | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 17,138.6 | 17,702.0 | 3.3 |
| Tuesday | 16,247.8 | 19,404.2 | 19.4 |
| Wednesday | 18,193.8 | 20,726.6 | 13.9 |
| Thursday | 17,281.0 | 21,433.4 | 24.0 |
| Friday | 18,963.3 | 19,321.0 | 1.9 |
| Saturday | 13,039.0 | 12,566.0 | -3.6 |
| Sunday | 10,155.0 | 10,415.3 | 2.6 |
| Day | Jan 2012 | Jan 2013 | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 1.50 | 1.58 | 5.7 |
| Tuesday | 1.51 | 1.56 | 2.7 |
| Wednesday | 1.51 | 1.57 | 4.2 |
| Thursday | 1.49 | 1.57 | 5.5 |
| Friday | 1.49 | 1.55 | 4.0 |
| Saturday | 1.37 | 1.42 | 3.8 |
| Sunday | 1.38 | 1.44 | 4.7 |
| Day | Jan 2012 | Jan 2013 | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 25,683 | 28,026 | 9.1 |
| Tuesday | 24,609 | 30,184 | 22.7 |
| Wednesday | 27,443 | 32,591 | 18.8 |
| Thursday | 25,694 | 33,624 | 30.9 |
| Friday | 28,276 | 29,973 | 6.0 |
| Saturday | 17,901 | 17,899 | -0.0 |
| Sunday | 13,970 | 15,001 | 7.4 |